For two decisive reasons, the answer is �no�. Its very large army is still only half the size of India's, whose military budget is more than seven times larger than Pakistan's. In the 1970s nuclear arsenals in the countries that deemed themselves 'allowed' to posses them grew. In the stipulated case, one would expect a 50% probability of occurrence within 20.8 years and a 75% probability of occurrence within 41.6 years [0.6931= loge(1/(1-.5)); 0.693*30=20.8; 1.386 = loge(1/(1-.75));1.386*30=41.6].

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